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Predictions 2002-2018

Strand Consult's predictions for 2018

Another exiting year has flown by. It is our annual tradition to make our predictions for the coming year. This is our 17th year of making predictions. We invite you to see our predictions from past years.

What Happened In 2017 - The paradigm shift became more apparent to telecom companies and investors
As Strand Consult looks back on the past year in the mobile telecommunications world, we are proud of our research which has contributed to many academic and industry conferences around the world.  We are honored to be invited to share our knowledge to an array of global stakeholders, including telecom regulators, boards of directors, financial
analysts, journalists, industry professionals, professors, students, and the public at large. We visited many countries to contribute to the evolution of the industry and its regulatory modernization.

In 2017 we exposed how politicians and regulators make policy not on evidence, but ideology and idiosyncratic preference. We see counter trends: some countries want to open the door for markets to drive a dynamic future while others want to double-down on failed policies of the past.  Some operators accept bad regulation as part of the new normal while others challenge it in court. Financial analysts incorporate regulatory burden as one of the parameters for assessment, and CEOs need to be ready for their questions about the impact of regulatory policies. As such, knowledge of public affairs and regulation is becoming increasingly vital for CEOs, and in 2017 many companies tapped Strand Consult for its expertise in business models, market conditions, and regulation.

Read the predictions for 2018

Strand Consult's predictions for 2017

Another exiting year has flown by. Thank you for your readership.  We would like to take this opportunity to wish you a Happy New Year. As is our annual tradition, we offer our predictions for the coming year. This is our 16th year of making predictions. We invite you to see our predictions from past years.

The year in which politicians and regulators halted development
When Strand Consult looks back on the past year and our contribution to the mobile and telecommunications world,  we are proud of our research which has contributed to a number of academic and industry conferences around the world.  We are honored to be invited to share our knowledge to an array of global stakeholders, whether telecom regulators, boards of directors, financial analysts, journalists, industry professionals, and the public at large.

When it comes to telecommunications policy debate, there is a manipulated reality about the industry. Strand Consult's role is to present the facts and create transparency. In 2016, we killed many myths, and we plan to kill more in 2017.

Read the predictions for 2017

Strand Consult's predictions for 2016
Another exiting year has flown by, and we would like to take this opportunity to thank you for the past year and wish you a Happy New Year. This is our 15th year of making predictions. We invite you to see the predictions from past years.

Review of 2015
For Strand Consult 2015 was another exciting year, and we find that more and more operators use our knowledge to achieve their business goals. The combination of our knowledge with out of the box thinking helps operators navigate a turbulent world where political and regulatory hurdles increasing hinder the telecom industry's ability to deliver results.

Read the predictions for 2016

Strand Consult's predictions for 2015
Another exiting year has flown by and Christmas is here again. We would like to take this opportunity to wish you and yours a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year and to thank you for this past year.

Review of 2014
For Strand Consult 2014 was another exciting year. An increasing number of operators use our knowledge to achieve their business goals. We are pleased that our research contributes positively to the development of the industry that is the foundation of our modern way of life.

As a result of Strand Consult’s multi-stakeholder project, a quarter of the municipalities in Denmark reduced site rental prices for mobile masts and cellular towers by 70-80 percent. This means that Danish mobile operators save millions every year; more masts are erected more quickly, and Denmark continues to improve its mobile coverage.

Read the predictions for 2015

Predictions for 2014: What to expect in the mobile telecom industry

2013 was a great year for Strand Consult and its team of experts. We have never published so many new reports or have been involved in so many interesting projects around the world as we have this year. Globalization is exciting, and it forces reluctant national regulators to think in new ways. One of our key accomplishments was to help operators optimize their business case to build and run mobile infrastructure. As a result of our work, Denmark is one of the few countries in the world where operators experience vastly improved conditions to deploy mobile infrastructure. This is part of a multi-stakeholder process with regulators, municipalities, and operators to improve mobile coverage.

Read the predictions for 2014

Strand Consult: Predictions for the Telecoms Market in 2013
What to expect in the mobile telecom industry
With the turn of each year, Strand Consult reviews the year past and makes an assessment about the year to come. For the last 18 years Strand Consult has provided strategic information to the mobile telecommunications industry, and for the last 12 years, we have made predictions. This annual review attracts a wide audience, both inside and outside the telecom industry. We believe that our predictions have become so popular, not just because of their accuracy, but because we are not afraid to speak our minds. Also, we post all of our predictions for the last 12 years, something that we have yet to find others do. We let our readers to decide for themselves whether we were right.

Read the predictions for 2013

Strand Consult: Predictions for the Telecoms Market in 2012
Once again Strand Consult would like to revive our year-end tradition of taking a look at the events that have happened during the past year and then predict what we believe will happen in the coming year.

Strand Consult has been in the Telco industry for around 17 years and we daily run into experts that offer opinions on how they believe the future market will evolve. Unlike many others, Strand Consult has no problem in being held
responsible about what we said in the past would happen in the future. We have been predicting the coming year's events for the past 11 years.

Read the predictions for 2012

Strand Consult: Predictions for the Telecoms Market in 2011
Strand Consult has an annual tradition at the end of December, where we take a look at what has been happening during past 12 months and then predict what we believe will happen during the next year.

There are many experts in the telecom industry that have tried their hand at predicting the future, but unlike many others, Strand Consult has no problem at all in being held responsible for what we said in the past would happen in the future. In fact, that is precisely what we have been doing every year for the past 10 years.

To our knowledge, there is no one else in this industry that publishes their predictions for the coming year and at the same time gives their readers the opportunity to read our past predictions - predictions that now go 10 years back in time

Read the predictions for 2011

Strand Consult: Predictions for the Telecoms Market in 2010
Strand Consult has an annual tradition where we write about what we expect to see in the Telco area during the coming year and look at how our 2009 predictions fared. Simply put, The moment of truth is when the fortune-teller is confronted with his past predictions on what would happen today. Many people in the fortune telling business often have short memories, but not at Strand Consult. We make sure that our readers always have the possibility of reading what we previously predicted would currently be happening. In fact we actually have a direct link to all our annual predictions from the past nine years: http://www.strandreports.com/sw1843.asp.

When we look back at 2009, we remember an exciting year where Strand Consult handled tasks for customers in many parts of the world. 2009 was the year where we published the report that was most probably the most read report in the mobile industry and the report that undoubtedly received the most global media coverage. We are of course talking about our report "The moment of truth, a portrait of the iPhone" where we provided information that gave a clearer picture of the reality that the iPhone is a part of.

Read the predictions for 2010

Strand Consult: Predictions for the Telecoms Market in 2009
2009 will be the Moment of Truth for many players in the telecoms sector

When writing our predictions for 2009, there is no way of avoiding relating my predictions to the new reality that has emerged due to the international financial crisis. At Strand Consult we make a living out of viewing events objectively, but on the other hand we are also so realistic that we know that the international recession that large parts of the world is currently experiencing will also influence an industry that primarily does business by delivering a basic service like good old-fashioned telephony - we are in a commodity industry.

Read the predictions for 2009

Strand Consult: Predictions for the Mobile Market in 2008
Isolation is dangerous – especially if you have to venture out into the real world…
History and literature are replete with stories of people who’ve spent years in isolation but who suddenly, one day, have to enter the real world. A big problem with being isolated is that you miss out on the natural evolutionary process that others in society have to undergo. This means you lack the skills and experience you need to handle the daily life you suddenly find yourself a part of.

Observing a person emerge from isolation often arouses pity – the thought that having spent all those years alone, and not being part of any social circle, the person has no idea of the history that has led to the present-day circumstances. The person is lost. This leaves one wondering whether it’s actually harder living in isolation, or returning from isolation back into the real world.

Read the predictions for 2008

Strand Consult: Predictions for the Mobile Market in 2007
Christopher Columbus knew all about the threats facing Telcos today Navigating the mobile universe is a daunting challenge. But it’s not unlike the challenges faced by ancient explorers such as Marco Polo, Christopher Columbus and the Vikings. In each case, it was their ability to navigate effectively that was the key to reaching their respective destinations.

If you could talk now to some of those explorers – who helped enrich our understanding of the world – and asked them to recount their experiences, I believe they’d express similar sentiments to those felt by many Telcos today.

For instance, they’d talk about the anxiety of setting off into the unknown, the danger of navigating uncharted waters for weeks or months on end and, finally, their apprehension on seeing a new coastline and venturing ashore for the first time.

Read the predictions for 2007

Strand Consult: Predictions for the Mobile Market in 2006
2005 – a look back…

2005 is almost over and once again we here at Strand Consult would like to give an overview of 2005 and our predictions of what we believe the coming year will have in store for the mobile industry. There are many people that put forward predictions about what will be happening in the coming year, but we are probably the only people in this business that also take a look at our previous predictions and how close they came.

Fortune telling can be fun, but you should not judge the fortune-teller on what he believes will happen tomorrow, but rather what he predicted yesterday would happen today. We make a living of selling information about the future and our customers judge us every day when they purchase our reports and workshops. We believe it is important that customers also judge their consultants on what they have said in the past.

Read the predictions for 2006

Strand Consult: Predictions for the Mobile Market in 2005
The year 2004 will be remembered as the year where the “first” 3G operators launched their offerings and the migration from 2G to 3G really started to take off. Many mobile markets have been dominated by 2, 3, 4 or 5 operators who have divided the market amongst themselves for the past years, often making it difficult for customers to distinguish between their marketing and offerings. At the end of the day it will not come as a surprise if the majority of the worlds mobile users cannot explain the difference between the different operators - despite the fact that each operator will claim to differentiate themselves in a number of areas.

2004 was also the year where web-based MVNO’s, like the ones seen in Denmark, spread across Europe and countries like Denmark, Norway, Finland and The Netherlands experienced massive price reductions. A trend, which we are sure, will spread to the rest of Europe in 2005.

Read the predictions for 2005

Strand Consult: Predictions for the European Mobile Market in 2004
2003 was the year where the mobile industry really experienced a paradigm shift, moving from the traditional monochrome terminals to the new colour screen terminals with MMS, WAP 2.0, Java, GPRS and of course built in camera. The customers have really embraced the new terminals and features and at the same time the use of mobile services has exploded. That SMS is a success is old news, but that WAP traffic has grown at an incredible speed in many countries has probably surprised most people. The use of premium SMS has been a huge success across all countries and many Wireless Application Service Providers (WASPs) around the world are experiencing record sales. One of the biggest surprises in 2003 came from Java games. Who would have thought just 12 months ago that millions of Java games would be sold to mobile users - in some markets revenue from Java games has overtaken the sales of ringtones.

Read the predictions for 2004

Strand Consult: Predictions for the European Mobile Market in 2003
Consumer Behaviour2003
will be the year where we really start to notice how consumers will be divided between a voice based market and a data based market. The consumers on the voice based market will primarily use their mobile phones for voice and a little SMS, they will mostly buy low end terminals and will not be very interested in colour screens, MMS, Java and Mobile Services.
The consumers on the data based market will be very interested in the new technology mobile phones that have much more functionality than just voice. New services based on WAP 2.0, Java, MMS etc. will start to be used by a rapidly growing number of customers.
We will see a number of customer segments that will show a significant increase in the use of voice and non-voice traffic and ARPU will increase in a number of countries.
We will also notice that increased use of VAS (Value Added Services) will actually stimulate voice traffic.

Read the predictions for 2003

Strand Consult: 2002 will bring many changes to the UK market for mobile services
Operators
Market will be divided between 4 operators of almost equal size - the battle for customers will be intensified, especially the battle for the most lucrative customers
Operators will further shift their focus from pre-paid to post-paid
Operators will increasingly focus on direct sale through own outlets, via the Internet, direct mail and tele-marketing.
Customers with high ARPU will increasingly be offered free or discounted hardware upgrades
We will see a number of new types of subscriptions, which are more user friendly that those offered today - they will be marketed on their simplicity in use.Operators will focus strongly on retail loyalty.

Read the predictions for 2002 UK